The "ACA" Cliff

January 7, 2026

The ACA “Cliff” is Here:

Why 2026 is the Year to Move to Private Health Coverage

For years, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has been propped up by temporary government "band-aids." But on January 1, 2026, those band-aids were officially ripped off.

Despite months of political gridlock, government shutdowns, and empty promises from Washington, the enhanced tax credits that millions relied on have expired. The result? A "full suffocation" of the American middle class, with health insurance premiums doubling, tripling, or even quadrupling overnight.

At American Medical Plans, we believe you shouldn't have to choose between keeping your lights on and having health insurance. If you are a small business owner, a freelancer, or a healthy family, here is why 2026 is the year to skip the ACA and look toward the private market.

1. The Death of the Subsidy: A 114% Premium Hike

According to recent data from KFF, the average ACA enrollee is seeing a staggering 114% increase in premium costs this year.

We are seeing real-world stories of single mothers whose monthly payments jumped from $85 to $750. When "affordable" is in the name of the law but the price tag is $9,000 a year just for the premium (before you even hit your deductible), the system is broken. By moving to a private plan, you can often secure rates based on your health status rather than being forced to subsidize a failing government pool.

2. The "Sicker" Pool Problem

As subsidies vanish, experts at the Urban Institute project that nearly 5 million Americans—mostly the young and healthy—will drop ACA coverage entirely.

This creates a "death spiral." When healthy people leave the Exchange, only the most expensive, high-risk patients remain. To cover those costs, carriers must raise rates even higher for those who stay. By staying in the ACA pool, you are essentially paying a "health tax" to cover the rising costs of a dwindling, sicker population.

3. Carriers Are Fleeing: Is Your State Next?

It isn't just the enrollees who are leaving; insurance companies are looking at the math and heading for the exits. As the market becomes less stable and the "risk pool" worsens, major carriers have begun scaling back or completely withdrawing from the Exchange in several states.

While the landscape is shifting daily, significant carrier exits or plan reductions have been noted in:

  • Texas & Florida: High-growth states where the sheer volume of unsubsidized middle-class earners is making ACA plans unsustainable.

  • The Midwest (Wisconsin, Iowa): Rural areas are seeing a "monopoly effect" where only one carrier remains, leading to zero price competition.

  • The West (Utah, Arizona): States where freelance and gig-economy workers are being priced out, causing carriers to rethink their participation.

  • The Southeast (Georgia, North Carolina): States where the gap between the "fully subsidized" and the "self-paid" has become a chasm.

4. Washington Isn’t Coming to Save You

While some in Congress are pushing for a vote in late January to revive the credits, the reality is a stalemate. The Senate has already rejected extensions, and the House remains divided.

Relying on a House vote for your family’s physical and financial health is a massive risk. Can you afford to pay $700+ a month for the next three or four months while waiting for a "maybe" from a politician?

The Alternative: Private, Underwritten Coverage

At American Medical Plans, we specialize in helping the "middle-class squeeze" find a way out. Private plans offer several advantages the ACA can’t match in 2026:

  • Locked-in Rates: No more wondering if a tax credit expiration will double your bill next year.

  • Health Rewards: If you are healthy, you should pay less. Our plans reward your lifestyle.

  • PPO Networks: Tired of the "HMO" restrictions on the Exchange? Access the doctors and specialists you actually want to see.

  • Year-Round Enrollment: You don't have to wait for a "window" to save money.

Take Control of Your Healthcare Today

The era of "free" government healthcare is ending for millions, leaving the middle class to pick up the tab. Don’t wait for a January vote that may never come.

Contact American Medical Plans today for a free quote. Let us show you how much you can save by stepping away from the ACA and into a plan designed for your life, your budget, and your future.

By Joel Smith February 5, 2026
This is a basic guide to health insurance for freelancers. We'll go over what you need to know to get properly covered.
By Frank Day January 13, 2026
Is Doing Nothing Costing You? Why Your Retirement Strategy Needs More Than "Hope"
By Quinn Lewis November 21, 2025
Diversify!
An image for the November 2025 American Medical Plans Newsletter
By Quinn Lewis November 3, 2025
With the rising premiums of ACA in 2026, it might be time to be looking at other plans. Private plans offer much wider networks and many more options for care.
By Quinn Lewis October 2, 2025
In this post, we go over how to get ready for open enrollment. We'll cover some important vocabulary and some common plan schematics that will affect your benefits.
By Quinn Lewis September 8, 2025
This American Medical Plans, September 2025 Newsletter covers indemnity plans. It goes over how they can help you and what you need to know before you move forward.
American Medical Plans Background
By Joel Smith August 20, 2025
American Medical Plans August 2025 Newsletter - Current State of Rising ACA Costs and Cash Pay Healthcare, Covering Rising Premiums, and Better Healthcare Networks.